⚡ Quick Summary
Published by IHEID (The Graduate Institute of Geneva), this report examines the geopolitical implications of the race towards the development of quantum computers (QCs). It frames QCs as dual-use and invokes the Collingridge Dilemma to explain why regulating an early-stage technology is hard: acting too soon can stifle innovation, acting too late can produce geopolitical instability. Its guiding question is what the current dynamics among the main stakeholders imply geopolitically.
The report builds mainly on nine interviews — quantum scientists, a lawyer, an NGO executive, a journalist and a financial-sector figure — alongside peer-reviewed literature, and notes that academic work on the "social" of quantum technology remains limited and that much debate appears in news media rather than journals. Its findings describe two trends: fragmented research collaboration with rising intellectual property applications, and protectionist industrial policies such as the U.S. Entity List and Critical and Emerging Technologies List, China's "Made in China 2025", and the E.U.'s Critical Raw Materials Act, European Chips Act, Net Zero Industry Act and Temporary Crisis Transition Framework. It records 32 countries with a formal quantum strategy as of September 2023 and projects delays, supply chain disruptions, a digital divide, territorial disputes and opacity about use. The deliverable is a set of governance recommendations, combining retrospective enforcement of trade regulation with five prospective measures.
🧩 What’s Covered
- Executive summary and framing: the dual-use character of QCs, the Collingridge Dilemma, and four projected consequences of a fragmented quantum race.
- Literature review: four schools of thought on technology and geopolitics — realism, liberalism, constructivism and techno-politics — with the report adopting the techno-political lens.
- Methodology: nine named interviews across the private sector, public sector, media, law, academia and quantum science; peer-reviewed articles and news sources; Saunders' onion model and a positivist, pragmatic orientation.
- Section 1, current geopolitical landscape: the state of development towards scalable and fault-tolerant quantum computers, the main players (U.S., China, E.U., Canada, Russia, U.K., Japan), declining research collaboration, patent application trends, and protectionist policies, including U.S. supply chain measures vis-à-vis China and the E.U.'s response.
- Section 2, pre- and post-quantum implications: delays in development, supply chain disruptions and power inequality, territorial integrity and land disputes, risk of malicious quantum applications, and an assessment of the legal framework.
- Section 3, governance: retrospective governance through enforcement of trade regulation and WTO reform, then prospective measures on international flows of talent and research funding, careful supply chain protectionism with strategic allies, formal taxonomy and standard-setting, voluntary codes of conduct and voluntary regulatory programmes.
- Annexes 1–6: operational characteristics and materials of QCs versus classical computers, multi-sectoral effects in finance, healthcare, sustainability and cybersecurity, the QED-C "Quantum Stack", the World Economic Forum's five phases of national quantum strategy, and accessibility of QCs.
- Bibliography: sources cited throughout, including government documents, journal articles and news reports.
💡 Why it matters?
For people who govern, assess or build advanced computing and AI systems, the report connects technology trajectory to trade policy and national security: it shows how export controls, raw-material dependence and secrecy shape what can be built, by whom, and under which rules. Its gap analysis of existing instruments — broad digital economic agreements, WTO enforcement failures and a QC-specific framework still at an early stage — gives a concrete starting point for compliance, standards and assurance work, and its recommendations set out prospective soft-law routes for governing a dual-use technology without legislation.
❓ What’s Missing
The authors acknowledge several limits: they could not interview governmental representatives, and they note that all identified consequences remain "purely theoretical" and that the geopolitical outcome also depends on factors such as scaling and market share. Coverage of actors other than the U.S., China and the E.U. is thin, and quantified data is limited to a few figures on patents, investment and materials. The governance section offers principles rather than draft instruments, no taxonomy content, and no enforcement mechanism beyond exclusion from cooperative talks; the WTO reform proposal is attributed to ICC positions rather than developed in detail.
👥 Best For
Policymakers, diplomats and international-relations analysts tracking dual-use technology competition; standards and governance teams designing consensus-based instruments; quantum scientists and corporate strategy or government-affairs staff who need the geopolitical context of export controls, supply chains and research collaboration; and risk or security functions assessing dependence on scarce materials.
📄 Source Details
Geopolitics of Quantum Computers, published by IHEID (The Graduate Institute of Geneva), 2024, with lead authors Arjan Bernardus Lammersen, Brian James Moscioni and Yiannos Vittorio Lazzarotto. The document runs to 58 PDF pages and is in English; no ISBN, series or reference number is printed, and no URL for the document itself appears. The extraction covers all 58 pages, but pages 1–2 are blank and no cover or title page is present — the title appears only in the required-citation line on page 3.
